Prediction markets in Phantom: Kalshi, World and what changed
Phantom added prediction markets on 12 December 2025 with Kalshi's markets, offered as tokens through DFlow. Since 1 June 2026, users outside the US trade markets from World Prediction Markets, while US users trade Kalshi's markets directly after Kalshi's identity check, at $0.02 per contract. Availability depends on where you live, and you can lose the whole amount.
Prediction markets let you buy "Yes" or "No" positions on real-world events such as elections, sports results or economic data. A correct position pays out; a wrong one is worth nothing. Phantom's version has changed twice in less than a year, so many guides are out of date. Last verified: 25 October 2026.
Timeline
| Date | What happened |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | Phantom and Kalshi launch prediction markets in Phantom. Users buy tokenised positions that track Kalshi's markets, paying with Solana tokens or CASH, without opening a separate account (Business Wire, December 2025). DFlow issues the tokenised contracts and handles execution and settlement (Phantom disclosures, 2026). |
| 17 Mar 2026 | The US CFTC's Market Participants Division issues Phantom a no-action letter covering software that connects users to CFTC-registered exchanges and brokers without Phantom registering as an introducing broker (CFTC, March 2026). |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Positions opened from this date outside the US use World Prediction Markets, a non-custodial Solana protocol, instead of Kalshi via DFlow (Phantom disclosures, 1 July 2026). |
| 1 Jul 2026 | World launches publicly as a Solana prediction market inside Phantom, using Chainlink oracles, with contracts settled in Phantom's CASH stablecoin (The Block; Solana Compass, July 2026). |
| 8 Jul 2026 | World announces it will migrate from Solana to Robinhood Chain, without giving a completion date. Reports said it remained available through Phantom (CoinMarketCap; Solana Compass, July 2026). |
| October 2026 | Phantom's help centre describes Kalshi markets for US users, traded directly through Kalshi after identity verification. |
Two versions, depending on where you live
Outside the US: World Prediction Markets
For positions opened on or after 1 June 2026, markets come from World Prediction Markets ("World"), which routes orders to liquidity providers on Solana. Outcomes are resolved by oracles such as Chainlink, and Phantom says payouts are redeemed automatically when the event ends (Phantom disclosures, 2026). Positions are Solana tokens in your wallet. World announced on 8 July 2026 that it would move to Robinhood Chain; we could not confirm how or when that changes the markets offered in Phantom, so check the in-app disclosures. World is not related to the identity project of the same name.
Phantom's region table lists prediction markets as restricted in the US, the UK, Germany and sanctioned jurisdictions, and available only in "some jurisdictions" (Phantom help centre, 2026). The table appears to refer to this version, since US users have a separate Kalshi route, but Phantom does not say so explicitly. The app shows a notice if the feature is blocked where you are.
In the US: Kalshi directly
US users trade Kalshi's markets in the app's Predict tab through Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange. According to Phantom's help centre (2026):
- You must pass identity verification first, and Kalshi makes the decision. Wallets created with Google or Apple may need a security upgrade.
- You pay with your Cash balance or any Solana token. Trades from Cash are gasless; trades from other tokens need a little SOL for fees.
- The fee is $0.02 per contract ($0.01 to Phantom and $0.01 to Kalshi), plus a one-time network fee when funds move from Cash to Kalshi.
- You can sell before the event ends only if there are buyers. Proceeds and winnings go back to Cash, usually within minutes of resolution.
- Kalshi decides outcomes and handles disputes. Trading pauses for maintenance on Thursdays from 3 to 5 AM Eastern Time.
- In game-winner markets without a separate tie outcome, a tie settles at $0.50 per contract.
Prediction markets are not offered in every US state or situation, and Phantom does not list exclusions in the articles we read. Check the in-app disclosures.
Positions opened before 1 June 2026
Older positions still reference Kalshi's markets via DFlow. Phantom's disclosures say they are settled by trading the expired outcome token for the stablecoin used to open the position, at a quote that may differ from the original contract price. Do not burn or "clean up" these tokens with a token-burning tool. Phantom's developer documentation lists a warning for exactly this case: This transaction will burn a valuable prediction market token. Please use the Phantom app to close the position first.
Who may not trade
Phantom's disclosures bar anyone with non-public information or advance knowledge of an outcome. Players, coaches, staff and employees of a sports league or organisation, and their families and household members, may not trade contracts on that sport. Individual contracts can carry extra restrictions (Phantom disclosures, 2026).
Risks
- You can lose the full amount. A wrong prediction settles at zero and is not refunded.
- Resolution depends on data sources. Kalshi's records for US and older positions, oracles such as Chainlink for World. Phantom says data errors, delays or manipulation could cause wrong resolution or losses and does not guarantee these sources.
- Liquidity. Selling early needs a buyer; the price you get may be poor.
- Legal and tax status differs by country and state. Phantom says you are responsible for checking that participation is legal where you live.
- Chat and scams. Prediction pages have live chat. Never follow links or copy addresses posted there, and ignore anyone offering "guaranteed" picks.
Phantom states that it does not act as a house, takes no positions against users and does not hold users' funds or positions (Phantom disclosures, 2026). For other Phantom costs, see Phantom fees explained.
Frequently asked questions
Is Kalshi still in Phantom?
For US users, yes: Phantom's help centre describes Kalshi markets traded directly through Kalshi after identity verification. Outside the US, positions opened since 1 June 2026 use World Prediction Markets instead.
What are the fees for prediction markets in Phantom?
For Kalshi markets in the US, $0.02 per contract ($0.01 Phantom, $0.01 Kalshi) plus a one-time network fee. We did not find published fees for World markets outside the US.
Are Phantom prediction markets available in the UK or Germany?
Phantom's region table lists prediction markets as restricted in the US, the UK, Germany and sanctioned jurisdictions. US users have a separate Kalshi option.
What happens to positions I opened before June 2026?
They still reference Kalshi via DFlow. Phantom says they are settled by trading the expired outcome token for the stablecoin you used, at a quote that may differ from the contract price. Close them in the Phantom app; do not burn the tokens.
Do I need KYC for prediction markets in Phantom?
In the US, yes: Kalshi verifies your identity before you can trade. Phantom's disclosures for World markets do not mention identity checks.